The staple groceries that could vanish from supermarket shelves this summer if Middle East crisis continues
Britain's supermarkets could face shortages of foods such as a chicken and pork in a 'reasonable worst case' scenario due to the Iran war, a leaked report revealed today.
Carbon dioxide (CO2) supplies are predicted to drop should the conflict last into the summer, which could see shoppers face less variety of some items on the shelves.
The gas is used for a range of purposes in the UK such as stunning pigs and chickens before slaughter; and to help plants such as cucumbers grow in greenhouses.
Water, soft drinks and alcohol are carbonated with CO2, which is used to dispense drinks and beers in pubs; and to keep food fresh and frozen in transport as dry ice.
CO2 can extend shelf life on packaged meats, some cheeses, baby foods and baked goods by preventing bacteria through 'Modified Atmosphere Packaging' (Map).
Dry ice is also used to cool blood supplies, organs and vaccines; while CO2 has functions in the electricity supply including storing excess renewable energy.
The Government has been preparing for shortages as a result of the war, according to the Times which has seen plans relating to what was dubbed 'Exercise Turnstone'.
But Business Secretary Peter Kyle said this morning that the public should be 'reassured' that ministers are making contingency plans for the impact of the war.
He told Times Radio that the Government did not comment on leaks, but he added: 'It is difficult for me, because, of course, these leaks are very unhelpful.
'But when people do read it, they need to be reassured that we are doing this kind of planning, and we are doing this kind of scenario planning. Bear in mind that back in Covid, Boris Johnson missed five Cobra meetings in the lead up to it.
'I can tell you, because I'm in these meetings, the Prime Minister has been there since the very start, and he is going through personally and driving deep dives into lots of areas of resilience throughout our economy.'
Mr Kyle pointed to his decision near the start of the conflict to reverse the mothballing of the Ensus bio-ethanol plant in Teesside to secure supplies of carbon dioxide.
He added: 'People should be reassured that we are doing this kind of action behind the scenes to keep resilience in our economy, so that when the full extent of what may or may not emerge, because this situation is still unfolding in the Middle East, you have a Government that is acting with creativity and boldness.'
He later insisted supplies of carbon dioxide are 'not a concern' for the UK, telling Sky News: 'If any of these things change, I will be up front with the public about it in advance so that we can prepare.
'But right now, people should go on as they are, enjoying beer, enjoying their meats, enjoying all the salads.
'But also there are critical uses for CO2: MRI scanning, for example, water purification; it's involved in our nuclear industry, our civil nuclear power industry, some defensive uses for it as well.
'There's lots of needs for CO2, so these are the reasons why I took it so seriously way back to six months ago, not just in the last few weeks.'
Andrew Opie, director of food and sustainability at the British Retail Consortium, told the Daily Mail: 'We would expect government to be contingency planning for all scenarios, and this type of exercise is a normal part of ensuring the UK's resilience to external events.
'Retailers are experienced in managing supply chain disruption, and there is no suggestion of any risk to food availability for consumers.
Business Secretary Peter Kyle (pictured at Downing Street on Tuesday) said the public should be 'reassured' that ministers are making contingency plans for the impact of the Iran war
'However, the situation in the Middle East continues to add inflationary pressures at a time when retailers already face significant new costs from domestic policies.
'Government should consider what domestic policy levers it can use to reduce these costs, particularly those non-commodity charges that push up the cost of businesses' energy bills.'
Karen Betts, chief executive of the Food and Drink Federation, added: 'The UK's food and drink manufacturers are agile and resilient, and consumers should not be concerned about shortages.
'However, the war in the Middle East is causing supply chain disruption which is starting to push up manufacturing costs, including for energy, road and sea freight, packaging and some commodities.
'Manufacturers will work hard to protect consumers from price rises but, even under an optimistic scenario, our forecast is that food inflation will reach at least 9 per cent by December.
'We are engaging government to ensure they are acting to reduce costs where possible for food and drink manufacturers, to mitigate the impact of rising food prices on inflation.'
It comes as Rachel Reeves has expanded plans to cut electricity bills for thousands of UK manufacturing firms as she continues talks in Washington DC focused on the economic fallout from the Iran conflict.
In a bid to help businesses hit by rising costs, a plan announced last summer to cut electricity bills by up to 25 per cent for more than 7,000 UK businesses will be expanded to cover 10,000 firms.
The British Industrial Competitiveness Scheme (BICS) will cut costs by up to £40 per megawatt-hour from 2027 by exempting businesses from certain extra charges that currently support green energy and back-up power supply systems.
An additional one-off payment in 2027 will be given to an extra 3,000 businesses, including companies in the automotive, aerospace, steel and pharmaceuticals sectors.
The Chancellor, who is in the US for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) spring meetings, said the plan will help UK businesses compete and create jobs despite the uncertain economic backdrop.
During her trip, she has stepped up criticism of US-Israeli military action in Iran, saying war was a 'mistake' and has not made the world a safer place.
Her comments came as she was due to meet US treasury secretary Scott Bessent, who has referred to the impact of the war as 'short-term volatility for long-term gain' which he said would prevent Tehran developing a nuclear weapon.
The White House has said talks are ongoing about holding fresh face-to-face negotiations between the US and Iran and that Washington had not yet formally requested an extension of the ceasefire due to expire next Tuesday.
