Radical Iranian army chiefs bent on continuing war will start assassinating their own higher-level officials if they continue to negotiate on Trump’s terms, expert claims
Radical Iranian army chiefs bent on continuing the war will start assassinating their own higher-level officials if they continue to negotiate on Donald Trump's terms, an expert has claimed.
Iran's veteran Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and a host of other top Revolutionary Guards commanders have been killed in US-Israeli strikes, but the ruling system has maintained its ability to operate in the conflict that began on February 28.
Hooshang Amirahmadi, the founder and president of the American Iranian Council, said that while around 150 members of the regime's top brass have been eliminated, a new generation of younger officers have entered the scene and are 'increasingly in charge'.
With Khamenei killed in one of the first strikes of the war, the 'vertical power structure' of the Islamic Republic has collapsed into a 'horizontal structure', giving more military agency to hardline second rank officers who are resistant to peace.
'If until yesterday Israel or America was killing these big generals, from now on I would not be surprised if some of these generals or these establishment powers could be eliminated by these second rank revolutionary officers, that de facto have taken power in their hands,' Amirahmadi told BBC Radio 4's Today Programme.
The US President has in recent days touted 'very good and productive' talks with Tehran, with unconfirmed reports indicating Washington has handed over a 15-point peace plan, including Iran dismantling nuclear facilities in exchange for lifting of sanctions.
But the Islamic Republic has denied that a peace process is taking place, with a military spokesman insisting that the US is 'negotiating with itself', adding: 'Someone like us will never come to terms with someone like you.'
It comes as the chief executive of Shell said that Europe risks fuel shortages as soon as next month if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, with the global oil and gas squeeze already forcing parts of Asia to cut energy consumption - producing a 'ripple effect' that will soon spread west.
Radical Iranian army chiefs bent on continuing the war will start assassinating their own higher-level officials if they continue to negotiate on Donald Trump's terms, an expert has claimed
Iran's veteran Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and a host of other top Revolutionary Guards commanders have been killed in US-Israeli strikes, but the ruling system has maintained its ability to operate in the conflict that began on February 28
Rocket trails are seen in the sky above the Israeli coastal city of Netanya amid a fresh barrage of Iranian missile attacks on March 25
The power structure of the Islamic regime has always been relatively decentralised, Amirahmadi explained, citing how each one of Iran's 31 provinces is governed by its own Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officials.
But now that Khamenei and most of his generals have been assassinated, 'this dencentralised political structure has been expanded, and the power, particularly in the military, has been widely distributed', with each officer in his own territory in charge of ordering retaliatory strikes.
Establishment figures from the old order under the former Ayatollah are still present, but they have no real power over lower-level regional colonels, galvanised by war, he added.
When Trump announced a peace process was taking place, the remaining brass immediately denied talks were happening, 'because these people are very afraid of the younger revolutionary officers who have taken the field in their hands'.
Israel and Iran continued to exchange strikes last night, with the IDF saying it had attacked two key sites used to develop long-range naval cruise missiles in the capital Tehran.
In Lebanon, Israeli strikes killed at least six people in the southern Sidon area on Wednesday, with the health ministry saying four people died in an 'Israeli enemy raid' on the town of Adloun, and another two in an apartment in the Mieh Mieh refugee camp.
The boss of the world's largest asset manager has warned that the world faces a 'stark and steep recession' with years of $150-a-barrel oil prices alongside 'profound economic implications' due to the Iran war.
The closure of the Persian Gulf channel, which carries about one-fifth of the world's gas and crude supply, has pushed Brent crude prices to their highest levels in nearly four years - at one point reaching nearly $120 a barrel.
Smoke and flames rise at the site of airstrikes on an oil depot in Tehran on March 7
Massive explosions over Tel Aviv as Iran launches surgical missile strike, February 28
BlackRock boss Larry Fink said it was too early to determine the outcome of the conflict, but told the BBC there were two possible scenarios.
If the conflict ends soon, then oil prices could return to their pre-conflict level at around $70.
But If the war is drawn out, or if there is a cessation and 'yet Iran remains a threat, a threat to trade, a threat to the Strait of Hormuz, a threat to this peaceful coexistence of the GCC region, then I would argue that we could have years of above $100 closer to $150 oil which has profound implications in the economy'.
While Trump may want to de-escalate the conflict to stabilise energy prices, prices are still hovering at $100 as markets grow increasingly unconvinced the war will end soon.
'We will have global recession,' Fink claimed, when asked what would happen if oil stays at $150 a barrel as the Middle East crisis deepens.
With fuel shortages looming, Wael Sawan warned that European governments may need to urgently curb energy demand - a measure not taken since the 2022 crisis amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
