Donald Trump's special envoy to Ukraine said the United States would 'kick Russia's a*s' on the battlefield in the event of all-out war.
Keith Kellogg, the U.S Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia, and a retired lieutenant general, suggested Vladimir Putin's rhetoric was overblown during a meeting in Kyiv.
'We had a discussion recently in the Oval [Office] where... they were talking about the primacy of the Russian military and how they were pretty good,' he told British historian Niall Ferguson. 'And I said to the people in the room: "We'd kick their a*s."
'I mean by that, don't take their statements at face value. They're not as good as Putin says they are,' he said, adding: 'And [for] that I give great credit to the Ukrainian military because they've taken them down a couple of notches.
Kellogg said he didn't think 'anybody should be afraid of the Russian military'.
'It's a nuclear power ... I got that, but I don't believe they've got the capacity that they had that they could march towards Berlin, or anywhere else.'
Kellogg spoke in Kyiv on Friday during the YES Annual Meeting 2025, organised by the Victor Pinchuk Foundation and Yalta European Strategy (YES), as Russia and Belarus began extensive military drills on NATO's eastern frontier.
Kellogg commented on the state of the conflict and the perceived threats to NATO sovereignty after Poland accused Russia of a drone incursion into its airspace early on Wednesday.
Asked whether the 'violation of Polish territory' constituted a 'red line' for the United States, whereby Trump could 'make the sanctions hurt', Kellogg said: 'I think you're right.'
Kellogg spoke in Kyiv on Friday during the YES Annual Meeting 2025
US army troops take part in the Crystal Arrow 2022 exercise on March 8, 2022 in Adazi, Latvia
Russian Armed Forces taking part in the Zapad-2025 (West-2025) joint military drills
The diplomat said there were three lines of attack in dealing with Russia to bring about an end to the war: diplomatic, military and economic.
'The first is obviously diplomatic and I think we've closed that door to a degree,' he said in a difficult admission after Trump's historic summit with Putin in Alaska in August.
'The military lane is another one and I think the Ukrainians have shown that they can battle them to a standstill. They can put a hold on ... The rest is economic.
'You've got to apply absolute economic pressures. And this means you've got to put some risk into the game. ... We talked about sovereign Russian assets. You're going to have to make a hard call. That's really oligarchs' money. Take their money.
'And when you talk about the oil, shut down their revenue. It's a petrostate. What do you mean by that? Well sanctions. ... So apply constant economic pressure.'
Kellogg's comments came two days before Donald Trump said that he was 'ready to do major sanctions on Russia when all NATO nations have agreed', telling reporters he wants to avoid Europe buying Russian oil that, he said, 'greatly weakens' their negotiating position.
The failure of diplomatic avenues has turned attention towards wider use of economic sanctions, sooner than direct military engagement.
But Poland's claims that Russia deliberately provoked NATO by flying attack drones into its airspace last week threatens to further destabilise the conflict.
Since then, Ukraine's backers in Europe have been weighing up sending additional support to the eastern border, or even shooting down drones and missiles over Ukraine.
The Kremlin said on Monday that it was obvious that NATO was fighting against Russia by providing direct and indirect support to Ukraine.
'NATO is de facto involved in this war,' Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters today.
'NATO is providing direct and indirect support to the Kiev regime. It can be said with absolute certainty that NATO is fighting against Russia.'
A service member of the 44th Separate Artillery Brigade, named after Hetman Danylo Apostol, fires a Bohdana self-propelled howitzer towards Russian troops at a position in a front line, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in the Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine, September 13, 2025
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky (L) greets US envoy Keith Kellogg at his offices in Kyiv on February 20, 2025
Speaking on Friday, Ferguson also asked Kellogg whether it was fair to infer that President Trump was losing patience with President Putin.
After pinning responsibility on Ukraine for not ending the war at the start of the year, Trump's comments have become increasingly critical of Vladimir Putin's conduct in the war.
Kellogg replied deftly: 'One thing I would advise if I was to advise anybody [on] working with President Trump: Do not put him in a position that he thinks he's being used.
'I think what he's seeing now is somebody who's been kind of playing a game with him.
He added: 'The Ukrainians are in the box. What I mean by that is really good. We've been able to work with President Zelensky, with Andriy, with Umarov. So I'm really comfortable working with them. It's the other lane that's the hard lane.'
Kellogg also suggested that after three-and-a-half years of war, Russia did not have the upper hand.
'Russia is in fact losing this war,' he said. 'Now they may make movements and say, "Well they're advancing in the Donbas region on Donetsk ... but the cost they're having, it's enormous.
'The numbers they have lost, when you're talking dead and wounded, well over one million. They left Afghanistan after losing 18,000. We [the United States] left Vietnam after losing 65,000. They've lost over a million, dead or wounded. These numbers are World War II numbers.
'They can't operate in large movements because the Ukrainians will kill them. And the Ukrainians are fighting valiantly... and so do I think the Russians are winning? Putin has said it and I think the West just needs to push back and say "no you're not".'
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky greeting US special envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg during their meeting in Kyiv, September 11, 2025
Members of the French 93rd Mountain Artillery Regiment take part in live-firing exercises as part of Exercise Lightning Strike on November 19, 2024 near Heinu, Finland
Mr Kellogg said he was asked the same question by President Donald Trump some six weeks ago, and that Trump's military advisors said Russia was not winning the war.
Russia was meanwhile continuing its major military exercises with Belarus on NATO's eastern flank.
The Zapad ('West') 2025 drills began on Friday and will run until Tuesday, September 16.
Troops will practice 'planning the use of' nuclear weapons and the new nuclear-capable Oreshnik ballistic missiles that Moscow has promised to station in Belarus.
Poland, Lithuania and Latvia have in turn ramped up security, with Poland ordering the complete closure of its border with Belarus for the duration of the drills.
European allies fear they could be used to rehearse an invasion of Europe, after 2021's drills saw a huge build up of forces used to attack Ukraine months later.
