The latest retail sales paint a gloomy picture for the high street, even before the Iran war, and underline how fragile the economy is.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said sales in February fell 0.4 per cent, after two consecutive monthly increases.
While sales rose by 0.7 per cent over the three months to February, retail volumes remain below their pre-pandemic level.
Retail chiefs are already sounding the alarm over the impact on supply chains and energy costs, which is likely to push up prices.
It was expected to be slightly rosier for markets this morning, after President Trump extended the deadline for a peace deal with Iran by 10 days.
He said the talks were going ‘very well’ in a Truth Social post, which came shortly after a selloff on Wall Street.
However, equity markets are wary of the development, with the FTSE 100 down 0.5 per cent by 9am, as oil rose to near $110 a barrel.
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10:29
Markets aren't buying Taco
The FTSE is essentially where it was at the start of the week. Neil Wilson of Saxo Bank says markets aren't buying that Trump's extension is anything meaningful.
'Minutes after US stocks posted their worst day since Middle East war, Trump was back on Truth Social extending his deadline for a peace deal with Iran by 10 days, claiming talks were going 'very well'.
'So far so Taco...but markets ain’t buying it with crude oil prices stubbornly higher and equity markets lower while the dollar and bond yields are elevated.'
'Note that some key markets are back to where they were on Monday morning when we had the 48hr deadline approaching (remember that?). S&P 500 futures sit under 6,500, Brent is at $110, the highest since Monday when it peaked at $114, while the dollar index has completed a round trip back to 100.
'These indicators are not screaming that markets think the extension of the deadline means de-escalation or ceasefire.'
09:04
Retailers take a hit
February's bleak sales figures and weakened consumer confidence have hit investor sentiment.
M&S and Next shares fell around 1.7 per cent after their bosses separately warned of the impact of the Iran war.
JD Sports and Frasers Group are also down.
Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at Wealth Club said: 'Tougher times are ahead for high streets, retail parks and online vendors, as shoppers are expected to tighten their belts while they brace for a barrage of higher household bills.'
08:30
FTSE opens flat as oil nears $110
The FTSE 100 is flat at 9,979 points this morning, as Trump's deadline extension fails to calm commodities markets.
Investors are working out the implications of Trump's delay in attacks on Iran's energy facilities. Previously, Iran had denied that any talks were ongoing, which has led to volatility in markets all week.
Brent crude is nearing $110 again.
07:47
CMA launches probe into five companies
The competition watchdog has announced an investigation into five companies as part of a crackdown on misleading reviews.
The CMA said it had launched a probe against Just Eat, Dignity, Autotrader, Pasta Evangelists and Feefo.
Since last April, companies have been banned from paying for reviews and hiding negative feedback.
The CMA said it would probe whether the companies, which span sectors including funerals, food delivery and car sales, had broken consumer laws.
07:26
Retail sales post first drop since November
The ONS figures show that consumers were reining in their spending even before the Iran war erupted.
In February, retail sales volumes fell by 0.4 per cent, following a 2 per cent rise in January, as supermarket sales slipped and demand for household goods was affected by wet weather.
It leaves retailers in a tough position, as they battle higher labour costs and pressure on margins.
Economists warn that February's gloomier figures are unlikely to be a blip, as higher energy prices threaten to squeeze budgets further.
Martin Beck, chief economist at WPI Strategy said: 'Retail is especially vulnerable to external shocks because it depends so heavily on discretionary spending, at a time when households are already contending with a softer labour market, slower real income growth and a rising tax burden.
'Unless energy prices ease, the modest retail revival seen in recent months may prove short-lived.'
NS&I said it estimated that up to 37,500 bereavement claims with a total value of up to £476m in customer deposits may have been affected.
dismissed this morning as a result of the fiasco. Sir Jim Harra has been appointed as chief executive on an interim basis.
In a statement to the House of Commons on Thursday, pensions minister Torsten Bell said the government would 'ensure the appropriate compensation' is paid to some affected customers.
15:11
Another tough day on financial markets
With less than 90 minutes of trading to go, the FTSE 100 is down around 1.2 per cent or 120 points at 9985.
It's been another tough day for investors as the Middle East conflict pushes oil up to $107 a barrel.
And as if the OECD downgrades were not enough bad news for the Chancellor, ten-year gilt yields are well over 4.9 per cent.
15:07
Labour is pushing up energy bills, says M&S
The boss of Marks & Spencer has accused Labour of pushing up energy bills.
Stuart Machin, who runs one of Britain’s biggest High Street chains, said that government levies now make up more than half of the retailer’s energy costs.
Stuart Machin, who runs one of Britain's biggest High Street chains, said that government levies now make up more than half of the retailer's energy costs - which is 'not sustainable'.
12:24
'I always forget the last one': Minister's investment gaffe
Labour investment minister Lord Stockwood suffered an embarrassing lapse at a major business conference today when he failed to name all eight of its priorities as part of the industrial strategy, writes John-Paul Ford Rojas.
Stockwood, a former chairman of Grimsby Town football club who joined the government last September, made the blunder at an event hosted by the British Chambers of Commerce in London.
Boasting of the industrial strategy, he said it was the first 'of this depth' since the 1960s.
He said the strategy covered 'defence, creative industries, digital technology, life sciences, professional services, legal services, clean energy and I always forget the last one'.
12:12
Chancellor’s house is ‘built on sand’
Professor Joe Nellis, economic advisor at accountancy firm MHA, has weighed in on the OECD forecasts.
‘Events in the Middle East have shown the Chancellor’s house to be built on sand,’ he says.
‘The key question now is how the Government will respond to weaker growth, higher inflation, and volatile financial markets, while protecting the most vulnerable from the most damaging effects of this crisis.’
11:58
Those OECD forecasts in full
And here is how the G7 is now expected to fare this year...
11:54
Growth down and inflation up...
This handy graphic shows the extent of the OECD downgrades to the UK economy today.
Growth forecasts for the year have been slashed by 0.5 percentage points to just 0.7 per cent while inflation is up by 1.5 percentage points to 4 per cent.
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Retail sales fell even before the Iran war; Oil rises to $108- MARKETS LIVE
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