Is diesel really dead? The used diesel cars that INCREASED in value most in a year

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The diesel car is on the cusp of being killed off.

As eco groups echo the rhetoric of them being 'dirty' and manufacturers frantically ditch them from their line-ups before the 2030 ban on sales, diesels now make up less than one in ten new cars sold in Britain - compared to one in two just a decade ago.

But that doesn't mean demand for diesels has died out.

On the contrary, exclusive cap hpi data shared with This is Money shows that some used diesels have risen in value in the last 12 months, meaning buyers are paying up to 13 per cent more for one than they would have done a year ago.

Cap hpi's head director of valuations, Derren Martin, tells us he believes the drop in new diesel sales is due to a lack of supply rather than demand, and strong second-hand prices are proof that people still want this fuel type.  

We reveal the top 20 second-hand diesel prices risers that are bucking the trend.

Is diesel dead or will demand for oil burners continue? We exclusively reveal which used diesel cars have gone up in value the most in the last 12 months and speak to vehicle valuations experts to understand what the future is for second-hand diesel prices

The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders' latest official new car sales figures show that just over one million were registered in the first seven months of the year, but only 86,000 were diesel models.

Oil burners, as diesels are often dubbed, make up just 7.9 per cent of registrations in 2023, which is a dramatic fall from grace having represented 50 per cent of the market just a decade ago, when they were being heavily incentivised by previous regimes due to their low-CO2 benefits.

In contrast, petrols represent almost 57 per cent of all new car sales this year, while electric vehicles (EVs) continue to make substantial gains with a 16.1 per cent share of registrations - that's double that of diesels.

But despite the doom and gloom surrounding diesels, there is still plenty of appetite for used examples, according to valuations specialists at cap hpi. 

It says that diesel sales - according to trade dealers - account for 39 per cent of all used transactions in 2023.

This is down from 40.6 per cent last year, and a drop of more than 11 percentage points against 2017 figures, when diesels represented 51.3 per cent of all second-hand motor sales.

However, speaking exclusively to This is Money, Derren Martin told us this is down to a lack of supply feeding through from the new car market - and not necessarily a plunge in consumer appetite for diesels.

This is supported by used diesel values remaining stable in the last 12 months - a huge contrast to EVs, which have plummeted in price on the second-hand market. 

Using data based on sale prices of three-year-old cars with 30,000 miles on the clock, it shows that diesel values are down on average by a mere 0.1 per cent year-on-year.

That compares to an average decline of 0.7 per cent across all fuel types.

In contrast, used electric car prices - down 35.4 per cent - are causing concern for second-hand dealers, while hybrid prices (conventional hybrids down 6.3 per cent and plug-ins losing 6.5 per cent) have also lost ground in the last 12 months.

Only three-year-old petrols have seen an increase in second-hand values, up 0.5 per cent on average, says cap hpi.

Here's a top 20 countdown of the biggest diesel price risers. And, for balance, we'll also tell you which diesel models have deflated in value most in the same period.

10. Peugeot 508 (2018-present) - up 7.9%

If you want a three-year-old diesel Peugeot 508 today, expect to have to pay just over £18,000. If you'd searched for a three-year-old example last year, the price was almost £1,500 less

Peugeot has stopped selling the 508 with diesel engines since the model was facelifted, but earlier examples on the used market are showing relatively strong gains.

The average price of a three-year-old diesel 508 in 2022 was just above £16,700, while one today would set you back just over £18,000, with values inflating by 7.9 per cent.

9. Volkswagen Passat (2015-present) - up 8.1%

Diesel-powered used VW Passats are gaining in value, according to cap hpi. If you wanted a three-year-old example with average mileage this time last year, it would have cost £1,500 less than it would today

Arguably Volkswagen's most practical car in showrooms today is the Passat - though it's only sold as an estate in 2023 with a 2.0-litre TDI the only diesel option.

If you wanted a three-year-old version this time last year, the average value of a 30,000-mile car was £18,366. But today, a three-year-old Passat diesel with average mileage would set you back £19,863 - that's almost £1,500 more than in August 2022.

8. Mini Cooper D Clubman (2015-2019) - up 8.4%

The value of a three-year-old Mini Clubman has increased in the last 12 months, with buyers having to fork out around £1,200 more to get their hands on a second-hand example today

Desperate not to miss a trick when relaunching the Mini brand, BMW has offered a Clubman estate since 2007.

The previous generation Cooper D Clubman is one of the diesel cars that seems to be seeing an increase in appetite, with average three-year-old prices up by over £1,200 as values inflate by 8.4 per cent.

 7. Ford Kuga (2012-2020) - up 8.4%

Ford's previous-generation Kuga was about as sensible as a family SUV could get. The attraction of frugal diesel engines has seen the average value of a three-year-old example jump almost £1,300 in the last 12 months

The Kuga has been the go-to option for Ford fans who want a practical family SUV, and the previous-generation model was incredibly popular thanks to its roomy cabin and cavernous boot.

And it seems the diesel versions are demanding higher prices, with values of three-year-old cars with 30,000 miles on the clock rising from £15,600 in August 2022 to a shade over £16,900 today - a value jump of £1,300. 

6. Volvo XC60 (2017-present) - up 9.0%

A three-year-old Volvo XC60 would have cost £27,270 a year ago, but today would set you back £29,617 as interest in the diesel SUV is growing

If you're on the hunt for a spacious SUV with a cracking safety record, you will struggle to do better than a Volvo XC60. Read our long distance XC60 review.

Three-year-old diesel examples have seen a 9 per cent rise in value in the last year, with the average value of cars with 30,000 miles rising from £27,270 to £29,619 in the previous 12 months. 

'Used diesel prices remain strong; dealers have been spooked by EV values' 

Derren Martin, director of valuations at cap hpi

Derren Martin, director of valuations at cap hpi, explains that diesel - and petrol - used values continue to do well in the wake of a substantial decline in EV prices in recent months, which has seen some battery models crash in value by more than a third in the first half of 2023 alone.

'There has been no anti-diesel feeling in the used car market like there has in the new market,' Derren explains. 

'Obviously, the volume of second-hand diesels is falling due to the huge decline in registrations in recent years, but values continue to be robust.

'In fact, second-hand diesel sale prices are almost on par with petrols this year.

'Most dealers we speak to are more than happy to stock diesel cars - in fact, they've been happier to have diesels than electric cars after being spooked by the big declines in value. 

'Petrol and diesels are still their bread and butter.

'Some dealers have even enforced bans on EV buying in recent months over fears they could make a loss on each vehicle and struggle to clear their stock. They need to sell something, and that's why combustion engine cars are still very desirable to them.'

'Britons still want diesels... but ULEZ will impact appetite in the capital' 

Derren says he believes there are still plenty of British drivers who want diesels, but they're struggling to get them now that manufacturers are producing them in lower numbers or killing them off entirely ahead of the ban on new combustion-engine car sales in 2030. 

'In my opinion, the big decline in new car diesel market is supply led rather than demand led, as it doesn't suit manufacturers to produce diesels due to the fines they could soon face with the introduction of the Zero Emission Vehicle mandate - which is why they're going down the EV route.'

And while Derren concedes that there will be an impact on used diesel prices following the extension of London's ULEZ on 29 August, this will only be applicable in the capital.

The availability of Mayor Sadiq Khan's £160million scrappage scheme will also likely see thousands of older diesels removed from the roads, with most oil burners produced before 2015 not compliant with the zone's emissions requirements and facing daily charges of £12.50 when driven.

'It's a bit early to say the impact of the ULEZ expansion, but it certainly won't encourage people living there to buy diesels,' he told us. 'However, speaking to dealers in rural areas, there's still huge appetite for diesel and the fuel type is still doing really well for them, especially with premium brands.

'Over time, the future of used diesel prices will depend on legislation, but at the moment second-hand values remain very strongly.'

=4. Peugeot 208 (2012-2020) - up 9.8%

Peugeot sells its current 208 with the option of a diesel engine, which is rare for any supermini in 2023. Used values seen here are based on the previous-generation car (pictured)

Diesel-powered superminis are becoming a thing of the past these days, but Peugeot still offers an oil burner in its latest 208 - as it did with the previous-generation car, as seen here.

And they seem to be in demand, as average three-year-old cars are worth 9.8 per cent more today than the same-age example would have been 12 months earlier. This translates to a price inflation of just over £730. 

=4. Skoda Octavia (2013-2020) - up 9.8%

Three-year-old Skoda Octavia diesel values have increased by around £1,600 - or 9.8% - in the last 12 months, according to cap hpi

Another super-practical family car option for years has been Skoda's Octavia - the more affordable alternative to its sister model, the VW Golf.

Diesel variants of the previous-generation car appear to be in ripe demand. The value of a three-year-old example last August was just over £14,500 but today is almost £1,600 - an inflation of 9.8 per cent. 

3. BMW 7 Series (2015-2022) - up 9.9%

A diesel BMW 7 Series would be a frugal luxury cruising tool for those racking up big annual mileage. Three-year-old car values are up almost 10% on this time last year 

If you want to do big miles in supreme comfort, the BMW 7 Series is an executive saloon that will deliver in spades. And one with a diesel engine will be far more fuel efficient than a petrol alternative.

With a new 7 Series only just launched - and the i7 electric version - there seems to be a bit of scramble for the previous-generation car with an oil burner under the bonnet. Three-year-old diesel 7 Series prices have risen by almost £3,000 in the last 12 months - up almost 10 per cent. You are still getting a lot of car for your money though.

2. Skoda Karoq (2017-present) - up 12.4%

A three-year-old Skoda Karoq has inflated in value by 12.4% in the last 12 months, which means buyers will need to pay on average around £2,100 more to get their hands on one

The second biggest used diesel price riser over the last 12 months has been the Skoda's Karoq - its compact family SUV.

Last year, if a buyer was searching for a 2019 diesel Karoq with 30,000 miles on the clock, they would have paid an average of £16,720. But today, a 2020-plate Karoq is going for over £18,800 - that's inflation of more than 11 per cent.

1. Skoda Superb (2015-present) - up 12.9%

Skoda's super-practical Superb is the biggest used diesel price riser, up 12.9% in the last 12 months, based on three-year-old cars with 30,000 miles on the clock

Skoda's third-generation Superb has been on sale for almost a decade. While it might be getting long in the tooth, it still offers incredible practicality in a relatively affordable package.

The Czech brand will still sell you a new one with a 2.0TDI engine, but those looking to the used market will find they have to pay more today than they would have a year ago. A three-year-old Superb oil burner in 2022 cost on average around £18,900. Today, a 36-month-old example is going for just over £21,350, representing inflation of 12.9 per cent.