EV switching blueprint? The European country where 90% of new cars are already electric

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Britain must vastly accelerate its transition to electric vehicles in the next decade, the country's climate change advisers said this week.

Of all the measures the Climate Change Commission recommended to meet Net Zero in 2025, which included moving to heat pumps in homes and eating less meat, the switch to battery powered cars is estimated to provide the greatest emissions reductions of all.

If EVs were to account for nearly all new car and van sales by the end of this decade and make up over three-quarters of motors on the road by 2040, Britain could reduce national emissions by 27 per cent, the report claimed.

But while these calculations might be accurate, current electric car uptake in the UK - especially among private buyers - isn't replicating these ambitions, with sales already falling well behind previous projections.

In 2022, the Office for Budget Responsibility had forecast for half of all new vehicle sales to be electric by this year. However, just one in five registrations today are battery models - and only one in ten private buyers are choosing EVs.

It's for this reason that Government has recently consulted with industry on the 2030 deadline to ban sales of new petrol and diesel cars, calling on the sector to share its views on how to invigorate EV demand in Britain.

But there is already a blueprint for a successful transition away from internal combustion engine (ICE) motors: one European country has already increased its EV sales to make up 90 per cent of all car registrations. So, what's the secret?

The blueprint to EV transition: Fully electric vehicles accounted for 88.9% of all new cars in Norway in 2024 - here's how it has encouraged its drivers to switch to battery power...

Norway has for years been leading Europe's transition to electric cars and its latest official registration figures show it is extremely well positioned to meet its own target of only adding EVs to its roads from 2025.

Fully electric vehicles accounted for 88.9 per cent of new cars sold in the Scandinavian country in 2024, up from 82.4 per cent the year previous, data from the Norwegian Road Federation (OFV) confirms. 

And those who still buy ICE cars are not members of the public, according to the country's biggest motor importer.

Instead, it is rental car firms who are responsible for the small percentage of petrol and diesel registrations. This is because 'many tourists visiting Norway are not familiar with EVs,' says Ulf Tore Hekneby, head of Harald A. Moeller.

It's stark contrast to the UK, where electric cars are still on the fringes of becoming mainstream.

In 2024, EV registrations in the UK grew by 21.4 per cent. Still, they accounted for fewer than one in five new models entering the road, with electric cars taking a 19.6 per cent market share.

However, it is important to point out that the volume of car sales in the UK compared to Norway is much bigger.

Norway's total of 128,691 registrations in 2024 is a mere fraction of the volume of new cars entering Britain's roads, which exceeded 1.95million last year.

In fact, the 381,970 EVs registered in the UK is three times as many battery cars bought in Norway in 2024.

Norway's top-selling brands EV brands last year were Tesla, followed by Volkswagen and Toyota, while Chinese EVs - which are becoming increasingly popular in the UK due to their lower prices - accounted for almost 10 per cent of new car sales.

Norway has proved that freezing temperatures and snow are no obstacle for mass adoption of EVs. Tesla is the best-selling brand in the country

What's Norway's secret to successful EV transition? 

The acceleration of electric car uptake in Norway is unprecedented.

A decade ago, EVs made up 17.1 per cent of total registrations in 2015.

However, by 2018 almost a third (31.2 per cent) of new model sales were electric, and by 2020 more than half (54.3 per cent).

And the rate of acceleration has continued to gather pace thereafter, with EVs making up almost two thirds of registrations in 2021 (64.5 per cent) and four in five in 2022 (79.3 per cent). 

The incredible scale of EV uptake in Norway means it will undoubtedly become the 'first nation in the world to pretty much erase petrol and diesel engine cars from the new car market,' explained Christina Bu, head of the EV association in the county.

But how has it done it?

Firstly, the oil-producing nation penalises petrol and diesel cars with high taxes, while exempting EVs from import and value-added taxes to make them more attractive, although some levies were reintroduced in 2023.

The policy has worked because it has been consistent over time, maintained by governments of various political persuasion, experts said.

'Very often we see in other countries that someone puts tax incentives or exemptions and then they pull back again,' Bu said.

Also helpful is the fact that Norway does not have an automaker lobby.

'We are not a car-producing country... so taxing cars highly in the past was simple,' Hekneby says.

Chinese EVs - which are becoming increasingly popular in the UK due to their lower prices - accounted for almost 10% of new car sales in Norway last year. Pictured: an MG4 EV being driven in Rauland, Norway

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Having incentives, rather than banning petrol and diesel cars - as is the plan in Britain in 2030 and the European Union in 2035 - was crucial too, adds Bu. 

'That would (have) made people angry. People don't like being told what to do,' she said.

Norway's policies mean there are now more EVs on the road in the country than petrol cars; battery models accounted for more than 28 per cent of all passenger cars driven in the Nordic country as of December, according to Public Road Administration data.

'That's the big lesson: put together a broad package (of incentives) and make it predictable for (the) long-term,' said deputy transport minister Cecilie Knibe Kroglund. 

This is somewhat in contrast to the UK, where ministers have been locked in discussions with industry to discuss how to make electric car sales targets more lenient, despite being introduced only last year.

Industry insiders and politicians in Norway say the secret to successfully adopting EVs is a broad package of incentives that are 'predictable for the long-term future'

The ZEV mandate was made law in January 2024 and forces car makers to sell an increasing share of EVs between now and 2035

In January 2023, Britain became the only country in Europe to make law a Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate with the then Tory Government saying it would set out the pathway to ending sales of new petrol and diesel cars in 2035.

However, Labour has since brought forward that deadline to 2030, causing confusion and concern among motorists in the UK.

The ZEV mandate requires mainstream car makers to increase their share of EV sales every year between now and 2035, with the threat of fines of £15,000 per car short of the annual quota if they fail to meet the designated threshold.

In 2024, the mandate demanded that a minimum of 22 per cent of all sales in Britain must be electric models that produce no tailpipe emissions.

The quota increases to 28 per cent this year, 80 per cent by 2030 (with 20 per cent exemption for hybrids) and 100 per cent when we reach 2035.

Manufacturers have widely been critical of the mandate for failing to taking into consideration the difficult market conditions facing EVs today, which has seen demand - particularly among private buyers - fall behind expectations over concerns about high prices, range and charging anxiety, and how futureproof the batteries inside the cars are.

Ministers have recently opened the door to relaxing some of the ZEV rules, with reports it that plug-in hybrid vehicles could be included along with pure-electric cars to help manufacturers meet the increasing thresholds. 

By 2028, Norway will have at least as many public charging points as it has petrol and diesel pumps, its largest fuel retailer said

Norway has adapted with EV popularity

The rising share of EVs on Norwegian roads means other sectors have been forced to adapt. 

At filling stations, petrol pumps are now rapidly being replaced with fast electric chargers.

'Within the next three years, we will have at least as many charging stalls as we have pumps for fuel,' said Anders Kleve Svela, a senior manager at Circle K, Norway's largest fuel retailer.

'In just a couple of years more than 50 per cent of all the cars in Norway will be electric. We have to ramp up our charging park according to that,' he added.

In the UK, concerns remain about whether there are enough public charging points for the volume of EVs on the road already - and if the Government can achieve its target of 300,000 devices across the country by 2030.

The UK currently has 73,334 public electric vehicle chargers available, latest sector figures show.

Experts say Norway should be used by the UK Government and the EU as a 'template for success' when it comes to encouraging drivers to go electric

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Norway a 'template for success' 

Chris Heron, secretary general at E-Mobility Europe, said the whole of Europe - not just Britain - should look at Norway as a 'template for success'. 

He added: 'EVs are now the main mode of transport and prove that freezing temperatures and snow are no obstacle for mass adoption. 

'Norway's success has been built on smart and sustainable policies making EVs more desirable than their petrol equivalents - from tax advantages to bus lane access.'

James Court, policy director at Octopus Electric Vehicles, adds: 'Norway is a blueprint for how to get EV adoption right, with clear, consistent and joined up policy. 

'The UK has plenty of low cost and low regret levers we can pull, it's not all about grants. 

'Examples of easy wins to keep UK momentum include easier planning policy, support for home and workplace chargers' installation, reform to the electricity market, as well as tax incentives for consumers and businesses. 

'Lots of small policies adding up to a lot. We must maintain the positive energy and continue to get people in EVs.'

Former Top Gear host and now EV activist and founder of the FairCharge campaign, Quentin Willson, says Norway's success can be attributed to its 'pulling every policy lever it could to increase EV adoption'. 

This includes no import duty, no VAT, VED and other tax breaks, to free nationwide parking and no tolls for EVs. 

'Norway also raised taxes on combustion cars and made government policy very clear to both industry and consumers that EVs were a long-term national policy.

'Critically, Norway's policies were joined up and complimentary, all working together to drive passenger car electrification forward. 

'The UK, which often has competing and counter intuitive EV policies, could learn much from Norway,' he said.