Trump to meet Putin today in a summit filled with intrigue
President Donald Trump will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday in a summit filled with intrigue, fraught with risk and carrying the potential for serious consequences for the future of the grinding war in Ukraine. Foreign policy experts exclusively tell the Daily Mail that Putin's strategy in Anchorage on Friday will be to isolate Trump from Ukraine and Europe and turn the US from a loyal supporter into a mere bystander.
Whether Trump emerges from the meeting smitten, seething or skeptical will determine whether another meeting's in the cards or if the president has finally reached the end of his patience with Putin's three-and-a-half year invasion. Given the stakes, experts say it's no surprise the White House is furiously trying to tamp down expectations for any immediate progress and characterizing Friday as 'feel-out' session.
'The Kremlin's strategy in Ukraine is to reduce the conflict into a one-on-one matchup,' said Peter Rough of the Hudson Institute. 'Putin will want to sidestep US sanctions and rebuild relations with Trump ... If he can drive a wedge between the US and Europe, all the better.' Daniel Fried of the Atlantic Council said the summit may have been built on false premises altogether given the tea leaves coming out of Moscow. 'The US may have agreed to this Alaska meeting under the mistaken impression that Putin was prepared to negotiate an end to the conflict in good faith. Now that this appears not to be the case, the Trump administration is trying to lower expectations,' Fried said.
Instead of granting Putin the benefit of the doubt, Trump should take the opportunity to engage in classic coercive diplomacy and hold his feet to the fire, Rough argues. 'Put the choice to Putin: either agree to a ceasefire that reflects the current line of contact or face US and European economic pressure on a scale not yet seen,' he said. The Trump-Putin summit will also be missing an integral partner in any peace deal: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Zelensky has firmly rejected any land swaps with Russia, including Crimea and Donbas, due to constitutional prohibitions and the belief that ceding territory only benefits Russia strategically. Zelensky and European allies emphasize that peace talks must include Ukraine and affirm that territorial changes by coercion are unacceptable. While Trump has proposed a potential swapping of territories to end the war, Zelensky has characterized that idea as 'dead.'
European leaders have echoed Zelensky's stance, emphasizing that Ukraine must determine its future and warning against being cut out of discussions, as they could demand harsher terms on Russia than Trump might. Former State Department Diplomacy Consultant John Sitilidis said any inkling of Trump concessions to Putin will face 'profound headwinds' among allies. And anything Putin promises behind closed doors will be greeted with a heavy helping of skepticism. 'Putin may agree tactically to a mirage of negotiations to forestall Trump's secondary sanctions, and Zelensky is realizing that the longer he waits, the worse his options to rescue his country from further Russian devastation,' Sitilidis said.
Trump and Putin will meet at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Alaska, with duration still unclear. The president is reportedly preparing to offer Putin access to Alaska's mineral-rich areas and ease aviation sanctions to end the Ukraine war, according to the Telegraph. Asked specifically about whether he was prepared to offer Putin access to rare earth minerals to get a deal, Trump didn't take it off the table. 'We are going to see what happens,' he responded to reporters in the Oval Office on Thursday afternoon. He also admitted to Fox News host Brian Kilmeade that there's a '25 percent' chance his meeting with Putin winds up as an overall failure. But he's hopeful that a deal can get done.
'I make deals,' Trump said Wednesday, with the lure of a Nobel Peace Prize potentially driving his diplomatic gambit. But Trump has also flashed his willingness to drop the hammer. Trump firmly stated that Russia would face severe consequences if it doesn't end the war, but he's backed away from that iron-fisted promise before. Guardian columnist Rafael Behr believes the President might follow through this time, writing, 'the damage will be done if he emerges from negotiations parroting talking points from the Kremlin script... Trump’s newfound skepticism about Putin might withstand corrosion by flattery.'
The president said he would judge whether what came out of the meeting was ultimately a 'fair deal', making known his willingness to walk away from a bad deal, and let the two sort it out on their own. Zelensky has said that any peace deal must start with a ceasefire or some kind of truce, saying a resolution can't work when drone and rocket barrages continue, and land is seized. If the war carries on, the next most urgent question facing the Trump administration will be whether to continue to fund it. Vice President JD Vance told Fox News earlier this week that the U.S. was done 'with the funding of the Ukraine war business,' even after the Senate Appropriations Committee approved a $800 million military aid package to Ukraine in late July. 'Even if the Trump Administration is not pursuing any new aid packages for Ukraine, it is happy to sell arms to NATO to transfer to Kyiv,' said Sitlilidis, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, said.
Fried says the most practical settlement of the conflict would involve a ceasefire, along the existing front lines ans security from Ukraine. But even he admits it's far-fetched. 'Russia will never agree to anything adequate,' Fried said. The setting for the summit is 'America's Last Frontier,' an area long recognized by both nations as a strategic Cold War battleground, marked by surveillance networks and covert intelligence activity.
Alaska was once part of the Russian Empire and was sold to the United States in 1867 for over $7 million. This visit will mark the first time a Russian president has set foot on Alaskan soil since the sale. Notably, this trip also marks the Russian president's first trip to the United States in a decade. The last time he was in America was for the U.N. General Assembly in New York. The last time Trump meant Putin in 2018 the meeting ran more than two hours. But the selection of the military installation on this trip was also meant to send a message: The extra security, the New York Times reported, would facilitate the president's wishes for a shorter trip.